Who will win 2010 Melbourne Cup

Well, you’ve come to the right place. All the Melbourne cup 2010 winners here and how we calculate them. Read this, then prepare for 3pm Tuesday the 2nd November Flemington racecourse and how to spend your winnings. Really…

Us at the Kaksak offices are not wealthy enough to fly to Melbourne for the event and haven’t got poncy suits or check-you, check-me-back sunglasses, so we will most likely bet at the Penrith Panthers watching on the big screen and eating all we can eat at the Bistro.

We also have experience at picking winners. This is a picture of our prediction for the Melbourne Cup 2009. Not sure how we got it so wrong but we chowed bread for 6 weeks, Gazza said it was a sure thing. Also had to duck and dive much of the local community who we had also given the tip to.

Our last years Melboure Cup pick
2009 Kaksak Melbourne Cup Prediction

We are determined like the CBA to be deifferent this year and win our money back and more, and redeem ourselves in the community. This had nothing to do with why we moved from Penrith to Bankstown, that is another story.

Firstly our methodology involved looking at the horses in the top half of the odds. The horses with long odds are unlikely to won, but a favourite of horse with semi decent odds must stand a chance right? The average odds over the last 20 years per Betfair are $14.8 with the highest being $48 and the lowest $3.50. In the 20 years only 3 horses were over $20 and 11 horses over $10, so looking at the top half of the horses running is valid. Step 1.

With this in mind we reviewed all the horses and their odds. The average odds for a win is $120 and we assume the horse to win must be better than average. Looking at all the horses with lower odds leaves us with a  shortlist of 33 based on odds as at 29th October the following per Centrebet.

The we eliminated foreign horses as it is unlikely a foreign horse will take home the prize. Just saying, that all, That leaves 24 horses of the 33 still to bet on. Step 2.

We then eliminated the horses that ran in the Caufield Cup, sort of. This is becoming a mission now and we are drinking beer. Gazza is also pretty kak on Excel and just deleted a column by mistake so not sure were this will end up, but I feel it is the Kaksaks destiny to see the future and to see who will win the Melbourne Cup. We now have 19 horses left.

We then eliminated the horses with ran in the Lexus Stakes as we reckon they would be too tired and probably stiff come Tuesday. This left 10, as only Shocking ran in the Lexus Stakes. Not on his own, but I mean of the group running in the Melbourne Cup. Step 3.

We are now getting to the pointy end. We now eliminated horses with names of ex girlfriends, assholes we know of just generally people who give us the shits. This left 11 horses. Step 4.

Kylie then call the Physic line and paid $5.50 for 5 minutes which actually helped us f…all, but when she sold it to us it seemed like a great idea. Jut those automated systems can’t take questions. So we then held hands and tried to visualise the winner, I had a great vision, reconstructed below especially for readers.

Visualising the Melbourne Cup winner in our minds

Just before I could check the winning horse number Gazza farted and after that all we could visualise was turds. Think Paulie’s one eyebrow actually started smoldering it was so foul. That Kentucky can really build up the gases. But we at the kaksak don’t give up easy when it comes to helping readers know who will win the Melbourne Cup. So after airing the room, getting our horse thoughts together and looking at pictures of Toula, Gazza’s ex who looks like a horse we were back.

The trainers then with the most wins are Bart Cummings, obviously, Etienne de Mestre, and Lee Freedman. Of the 11 horses remaining the following were trained by one of these men (Step 5):

  • So you Think (Bart) and odds $4.40
  • Above Average (Freedman) and odds of $151 – we included anyway
  • Dariana (Bart)  and odds of $34
  • Precedence (Bart) and odds of $16
  • Faint Perfume (Bart) and odds of $35

Based on this racing science we reckon the following:

Top 3 horses will be :

  1. Precedence
  2. Above Average
  3. So you Think

You might also just want to pick a name you think is cool and put your hard earned cash on that, the chances of winning are actually probably higher. But if you do win, remember where you heard it first and out commission rate is a mere 50% of winnings less the original bet. You go girls…