Who will win the RWC? Answers based on analysis here
The Rugby World Cup is coming shortly just across the ditch and we have been doing our analysis to determine how much our lucky readers can win with the right bets. We, like the New Zealanders love our rugby and also lie the New Zealanders love living in Australia. Our methodology and analysis included the following; IRB ratings, historical performance, coaches, players and a vist to the Sangoma, who confirmed our analysis as well as gave us larger male parts, financial freedom, made us more attractive to chicks and cured us of HIV, all for ZAR 10. Bargain, except that we don’t have aids and he wouldn’t refund us.
Back to the rugger and the World Cup predictions….
Current IRB Team Rankings:
- New Zealand
- South Africa
Current IRB rankings are no surprise and not a good indicator given the Northern and Southern Hemispheres have not had that many games. Samoa might be a dark horse having beaten the Wallabies recently, along with France and Argentina.
Historcial RWC Performance
1987 – Winner : New Zealand. Runners up : Australia, France and Wales
1991 – Winner : Australia. First losers : England, New Zealand, Scotland
1995 – Winner : South Africa. Runners up : New Zealand, France and England
1999 – Winner : Australia. Runners up : New Zealand, France, South Africa
2003 – Winner : England. Runners up : New Zealand, Australia, France
2007 – Winner : South Africa. Runners up : France, Argentina and England
Points scored by team i.e. which team has scored the most points in the history of the World Cup include:
- All Blacks
So the conclusions from this are:
- New Zealand will most likely choke, but the fear of playing at home and the fact that they might all get deported to Samoa if they lose give an even chance of this going either way.
- Australia following the pattern should be in the top 4, but too close to call for a win, plus the fact that they bring the average age in the whole competition down by about 10 years
- South Africa, following the above pattern may not make the top 4, most like due to the fact that the players children can now run faster then they can, and they bring the average age of the competition up 10 years.
- England, following the pattern above will not make the top 4, and most probably because it is highly likely they will riot, loot and trash their change room, only to be identified later from video footage and sentenced via social media.
- France most likely in the top 4 but cannot win, they are still pissed about the Tour de France and may surrender to the HAKA before even playing
- Argentina will only rise to the occasion if England is there, they still have a score to settle, but no good crying for them.
Outliers who may fill the places should the Safricans and Poms not make it to the RWC finals include all the other teams. Just kidding, Argentina, Samoa and Scotland, most likely Samoa or Wales. The teams that definitely will not win according to our official RWC analysis are the USA and Russian rugby teams. While they may be super powers in their own right, this outcome we believe has a probability of less than fokall to none.
So from our detailed analysis of historical RWC performance we include Australia, New Zealand and France as options. France most likely to only make the top 4.
All Blacks : Graham Henry appointed 2003 , winning ratio 87%, as at Sept 2010
Wallabies : Robbie Deans appointed 2007, winning ratio 55.8%, as at May 2011
Springboks : Peter de Villiers, appointed 2008, winning ratio 61% as at Sept 2010 (Only 2 wins in New Zealand)
England : Martin Johnson, appointed 2008, winning ration of 46.88%
France : Marc Lievremont, appointed 2007, winning ratio of form what we can see around 55%, happy to be corrected on this, recent losses to Italy!!
Ireland : Declan Kidney, appointed 2008, as at January 2011, win ratio of 69%
Wales : Robin McBride, listed as caretaker coach since 2009 with 2 matches played and 100% win record so far. Please update if you have newer info.
So far from a coaching perspective, the clear winners seem to be the All Blacks, but they could choke, the Springboks and Ireland with the Wallabies as a dark horse. Robbie Deans is showing flair and innovation in the Wallaby back line at the moment but you still need good forwards to give a great back line the ball. These are lacking and small. The Bokke have a good forward pack but lack in the back line and their plays are the same as in the last World Cup. Pieter is relying on history. Graham Henry wants to go out on a high but will remain a grumpy old bastard no matter what the result. The French coach, Marc has some reputation to regain and Scotland coaching is in disarray.
So from a coaching perspective the Kaksak likes the All Blacks and the Wallabies. also neither of these teams will be jet lagged.
RWC Player performance
Given some teams are newer than others and certain teams are still being finalised looking purely at scoring ability is not really accurate. Johnny Wilkinson is still the all time biggest points scorer in the RWC at 249 with Jonah Lomu still holding the record for 15 tries. So its off to the Sangoma.
We were not convinced the Sangoma knew what the Rugby World Cup was or that he was genuine given he had his offices in Blacktown and spoke with a pom accent but he said he was from a spot in the Transkei where the boom grows 6 feet tall. Anyway, according to the Sangoma, he believes the following:
The semi finals will be:
Pool A : All Blacks and France
Pool B : England and Argentina
Pool C : Australia and Ireland
Pool D : South Africa and Wales
The semi finals will be the following rugby teams:
Australia v England and Australia will win
South Africa v New Zealand and New Zealand will win
The final will be Australia v New Zealand and with probability of 82.5% the All Blacks will win and we will have to listen to loud Kiwis going on about how great their small little country full of sheep is. Watch for the upset. France are known for this and little is known about Wales.
We qualify the advice from the Sangoma. He said his “bones” had been removed by Australian Customs as they were considered food stuffs and the fluffy dice he was using while from China via Paddy’s Markets he said had been conceived by a Great Chinese Warrior of equal standing to Dingaan. Also his animals skins were made from plastic and came from China. Again the fokken customs.
Other outliers and options for RWC outcomes include:
- The English team gets sent home early for looting (Probability: high)
- The Wallabies get homesick, the young uns and want to come home and see mum (Probability: low, more likely mums will be on the sidelines and disrupt play)
- The Springboks, given their age will forget where they are playing and arrive at the wrong stadium
- The Samoans, because they are big m….f…..ers
- Wales, because they are Welshmen….
So sorry, folks but it looks like the game played in heaven is going to be played and won in Mordor and our hell will be dealing with the Kiwi’s for the next 4 years. Oh, and as usual don’t rely on us, we may be wrong because we are not sure if the Sangoma was really a Sangoma?